Sox Watch

Red Sox WPA through 8/22/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/22/06
Red Sox 3, Angels 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/22/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/22/06

Red Sox Series WPA vs. Yankees

In the wake of this catastrophic series, here's a summary showing WPA totals for each player over the course of the five-game series.

On the pitching side, things are pretty much as you would suspect. Schilling and Wells turned in the only decent starts, while the bullpen sucked with the exception of Papelbon on Sunday and Tavarez in Game 2 on Friday. Papelbon managed to turn in a positive WPA despite his blown save, on the strength of his gutsy eighth-innning appearance. He entered the game with a two-run lead and the bases loaded with nobody out, which is about the toughest situation you can put a closer into. The Red Sox Win Probability when he entered the game was down to 56.2%. By the time he escaped the inning, giving up just the sacrifice fly, the WP had increased to 85.7%, giving him +0.295 for the inning. Of course, he gave some of this back in the ninth by giving up the game-tying bloop to Jeter, but he still finished with a positive total for the night.

It's also interesting to note that among the Yankees' starting pitchers, only Lidle in Game 5 turned in a positive WPA. The starters were negative in all four other games, yet the Sox were still unable to capitalize.

Offensively, Manny and Mark Loretta were the only bright spots. Manny went 8-for-11 with nine walks, while Loretta had nine hits over the weekend, four of them doubles. Crisp and Javy Lopez hurt the team the most at the plate, going a combined 3-for-31 over the weekend.

For New York, of course, just about everyone had a good series, with the exception of the starters. Rivera, Proctor, and Farnsworth led the way in the bullpen, with Vallone turning in the only poor performance. At the plate, Abreu, Giambi, and Jeter did the most damage, while the only significant negative performances were turned in by Craig Wilson and Sal Fasano.

Red Sox Series WPA Totals
vs. Yankees, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Yankees Series WPA Totals
vs. Red Sox, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Red Sox-Yankees Series WPA Summary

In the wake of this catastrophic series, here's a summary showing WPA totals for each player over the course of the five-game series.

On the pitching side, things are pretty much as you would suspect. Schilling and Wells turned in the only decent starts, while the bullpen sucked with the exception of Papelbon on Sunday and Tavarez in Game 2 on Friday. Papelbon managed to turn in a positive WPA despite his blown save, on the strength of his gutsy eighth-innning appearance. He entered the game with a two-run lead and the bases loaded with nobody out, which is about the toughest situation you can put a closer into. The Red Sox Win Probability when he entered the game was down to 56.2%. By the time he escaped the inning, giving up just the sacrifice fly, the WP had increased to 85.7%, giving him +0.295 for the inning. Of course, he gave some of this back in the ninth by giving up the game-tying bloop to Jeter, but he still finished with a positive total for the night.

It's also interesting to note that among the Yankees' starting pitchers, only Lidle in Game 5 turned in a positive WPA. The starters were negative in all four other games, yet the Sox were still unable to capitalize.

Offensively, Manny and Mark Loretta were the only bright spots. Manny went 8-for-11 with nine walks, while Loretta had nine hits over the weekend, four of them doubles. Crisp and Javy Lopez hurt the team the most at the plate, going a combined 3-for-31 over the weekend.

For New York, of course, just about everyone had a good series, with the exception of the starters. Rivera, Proctor, and Farnsworth led the way in the bullpen, with Vallone turning in the only poor performance. At the plate, Abreu, Giambi, and Jeter did the most damage, while the only significant negative performances were turned in by Craig Wilson and Sal Fasano.

Red Sox Series WPA Totals
vs. Yankees, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Yankees Series WPA Totals
vs. Red Sox, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/21/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/21/06
Yankees 2, Red Sox 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/21/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/20/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/20/06
Yankees 8, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/20/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/19/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/19/06
Yankees 13, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/19/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)
Yankees 14, Red Sox 11

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Red Sox WPA through 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)
Yankees 12, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Red Sox WPA through 8/16/06

It was a relief last night to see the Red Sox bats deliver some timely hits, and to see the bullpen finally slam the door, helping deliver the first win over a team with a winning record since the 7-6 victory over the Angels on July 29th.

Wells finished with a negative WPA, but he pitched well enough to get the job done, delivering 6 and 2/3 respectable innings to even his record at 2-2. The big story at the plate was Coco Crisp, who went two-for-three with a walk and delivered the go-ahead runs in the bottom of the sixth with a two-run double. Crisp is now riding a seven-game hitting streak, hitting .345 over that stretch. Ortiz, meanwhile, broke out of his home run mini-drought with a two-run shot to break a 1-1 tie in the fifth. Ortiz reached base four times, going 1-1 with three walks (one semi-intentional, as he was given a free pass after Verlander got behind 3-1 in the third).

Jonathan Papelbon was as sharp as ever, with a 1-2-3 inning to earn his 32nd save on just six pitches, bringing sighs of relief across Red Sox Nation. Just as important, however, was Craig Hansen's performance, recording four outs while giving up just one hit. Hansen had been shaky, allowing nine runs (six earned) over his last seven starts, so it was nice to see a solid performance from him.

The bullpen is now nicely positioned going into Friday's doubleheader: the Tigers series saw one appearance each from Seanez, Breslow, Timlin, Hansen, and Papelbon. The Sox relax at home today while the Yankees wrap up their series with the Orioles with a day game today. A Baltimore win today would put the Sox just 1.5 games back. Let's hope it comes on a Kevin Millar homer in the eighteenth inning after a three-hour rain delay.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/16/06
Tigers 4, Red Sox 6