Sox Watch

Red Sox WPA through 7/30/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 7/30/06
Angels 10, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/30/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/30/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/29/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 7/29/06
Angels 6, Red Sox 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/29/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/29/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/28/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 7/28/06
Angels 8, Red Sox 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/28/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/28/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/26/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 7/26/06
Red Sox 1, Athletics 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/26/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/26/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/25/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 7/25/06
Red Sox 13, Athletics 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/25/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/25/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/24/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 7/24/06
Red Sox 7, Athletics 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/24/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/24/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/23/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 7/23/06
Red Sox 8, Mariners 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/23/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/23/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/22/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 7/22/06
Red Sox 2, Mariners 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/22/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/22/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/21/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 7/21/06
Red Sox 9, Mariners 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/21/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/20/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 7/20/06
Royals 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/20/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/20/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/19/06

Less than 24 hours after Jon Lester turned in the best starting pitching performance of the season, Josh Beckett exceeded it - at least as measured by WPA. Beckett earned a total of +0.607 WPA for this afternoon's game, scattering four hits in eight innings and combining with Papelbon for the second consecutive 1-0 shutout.

Why did Beckett earn more WPA than Lester did yesterday (Lester had +0.592 yesterday)? They both pitched eight shutout innings, and Beckett allowed four hits while Lester allowed just one. From a WPA perspective, though, the hits are not too important - as long as they don't turn into runs. For a pitcher who starts and finishes an inning in which no runs score, the WPA for the inning is determined solely by the difference between the Win Probability at the beginning and end of the inning. What happens in between does not matter - the pitcher loses WPA for allowing hits, but gains it back for the subsequent outs, which are worth more WPA with men on base.

So why aren't the totals for the two games the same? Lester had a bit more support from his defense, which took a little bit of his WPA away from him. I credit defensive players who make great plays with some of the WPA that would otherwise accrue to the pitcher. In Lester's game, I gave 25% of the WPA credit for the pickoff of Grudzielanek to Youkilis, who executed a tough throw to second, and I gave 25% of the credit for the out on Gathright's bunt attempt in the eighth to Lowell, who fielded it cleanly and fired a shot to first. Beckett got a bit of help too (Manny's catch of Phillips' liner in the fifth), but it was not worth as much as the help Lester got. Beckett therefore finishes with a slightly higher total, and takes his place as the best starting pitcher WPA performance of the year.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 7/19/06
Royals 0, Red Sox 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/19/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/19/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/18/06

After going 88 straight games without recording a shutout, the Red Sox pitching staff has now put up two in the last four games. Jon Lester's brilliant start last night earned him the highest WPA for a starting pitcher so far this season, with a total of +0.592. Having a single-game WPA greater than 0.500 essentially means that the player was responsible for an entire win by himself, and then some. In last night's case, he won the game on his own (earning +0.500 WPA), and compensated for the lack of offense by the rest of the team by notching an additional +0.092 WPA. In contrast, Schilling's two-hit appearance in Saturday's shutout was only worth +0.268 - partially because he only pitched seven innings, but mostly because the Sox bats had already given him a five-run lead by the fourth inning, so there was less WPA on the line in the later innings.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 7/18/06
Royals 0, Red Sox 1