Sox Watch

Monday, August 21, 2006

Red Sox-Yankees Series WPA Summary

In the wake of this catastrophic series, here's a summary showing WPA totals for each player over the course of the five-game series.

On the pitching side, things are pretty much as you would suspect. Schilling and Wells turned in the only decent starts, while the bullpen sucked with the exception of Papelbon on Sunday and Tavarez in Game 2 on Friday. Papelbon managed to turn in a positive WPA despite his blown save, on the strength of his gutsy eighth-innning appearance. He entered the game with a two-run lead and the bases loaded with nobody out, which is about the toughest situation you can put a closer into. The Red Sox Win Probability when he entered the game was down to 56.2%. By the time he escaped the inning, giving up just the sacrifice fly, the WP had increased to 85.7%, giving him +0.295 for the inning. Of course, he gave some of this back in the ninth by giving up the game-tying bloop to Jeter, but he still finished with a positive total for the night.

It's also interesting to note that among the Yankees' starting pitchers, only Lidle in Game 5 turned in a positive WPA. The starters were negative in all four other games, yet the Sox were still unable to capitalize.

Offensively, Manny and Mark Loretta were the only bright spots. Manny went 8-for-11 with nine walks, while Loretta had nine hits over the weekend, four of them doubles. Crisp and Javy Lopez hurt the team the most at the plate, going a combined 3-for-31 over the weekend.

For New York, of course, just about everyone had a good series, with the exception of the starters. Rivera, Proctor, and Farnsworth led the way in the bullpen, with Vallone turning in the only poor performance. At the plate, Abreu, Giambi, and Jeter did the most damage, while the only significant negative performances were turned in by Craig Wilson and Sal Fasano.

Red Sox Series WPA Totals
vs. Yankees, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Yankees Series WPA Totals
vs. Red Sox, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06


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