Sox Watch

Sunday, June 25, 2006

Red Sox WPA through 6/24/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 6/24/06
Phillies 3, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/24/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/24/06


  • Looks like Coco is about to overtake A-Gonz as the worst offensive contributor on the team. What would you say is the main reason behind this, according to your numbers?

    By Anonymous Chuck, at 6:58 PM  

  • I'd say instead that Gonzo is about to pass Coco to climb out of the basement. Coco has been sliding fairly slowly, while Gonzo has been having a good month so far (particularly the first couple weeks of June).

    Coco's WPA was hurt very badly in the June 13 debacle against the Twins. This game will be remembered primarily for Julian Tavarez's meltdown, but it also was a nightmare outing for Coco. Over the course of the twelve inning game, Coco went 0-6, with the following ABs:

    --- 1st inning, nobody on, no outs, tie game - strikeout, -0.023 WPA
    --- 3rd inning, first and third, one out, tie game - strikeout, -0.069 WPA
    --- 6th inning, nobody on, one out, tie game, groundout, -0.026 WPA
    --- 8th inning, first and second, one out, tie game, GIDP, -0.177 WPA
    --- 10th inning, man on first, two outs, tie game - fly out, -0.068 WPA
    --- 12th inning, first and third, two outs, one run lead, FC, -0.042 WPA

    He finished the game with a -0.404 WPA for the night, the worst offensive performance by a Boston player so far this year. It was a "perfect storm" of bad circumstances - a lousy night, lots of at-bats, in crucial situations. He was particularly hurt by not bringing the run home from third with one out in the third, and by the DP in the eighth. When you have bad ups late in a close game, it really kills your WPA.

    This game alone is responsible for almost half of Crisp's negative WPA for the season. If he had had a decent night, he'd be closer to Cora overall than to Gonzalez.

    With that said, if Gonzalez keeps hitting the ball the way he has been lately, it won't be long before pulls himself up to a respectable level.

    By Blogger jpo, at 7:21 PM  

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