Sox Watch

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Red Sox WPA through 6/19/06

I didn't see this entire game, so I don't have too much analysis today.

However, there is one interesting WPA note on the play where Loretta was thrown out at the plate in the fourth inning. At this point, we had Loretta on second with Ortiz up and two outs. Ortiz singles to center and Loretta tries to score, but is gunned down by a nice throw from Byrd, the center fielder ( has video of the play). Normally I score this as follows:

  • A single for Ortiz moving the runner to third, which is +0.014 WPA for Ortiz in this situation (charged against the pitcher).
  • An out for Loretta advancing to score, which is worth -0.047 WPA in this situation. This gets charged to Loretta as the baserunner (with Byrd getting credit on the other side).

However, on this play you also had Manny in the on-deck circle, being, well, Manny. Rather than signalling Loretta to slide, he's instead standing behind the umpire, doing nothing. Manny's lack of involvement in the play looked like it cost Loretta a decent chance of sliding safely. So for this play, I decided to split the -0.047 evenly between Loretta and Manny. I usually don't give WPA credits/debits to players not directly involved in the play, but this was an unusual situation, one where it seemed appropriate to assign some of the debit to Manny even though he wasn't directly involved. This is part of why Manny comes out negative for the night, despite his 2-for-5 night and his HR in the eighth.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 6/19/06
Nationals 3, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/19/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/19/06


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