Sox Watch

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Red Sox WPA through 5/29/06

A wild ride last night, but the Sox didn't have enough gas to get to the finish line. It was a shame to waste a six-run comeback from being down 6-0, and particularly painful to watch Gonzalez, Youk, and Loretta go down meekly in the ninth with the game on the line.

Bright spots were Coco's first Red Sox homer, and Varitek's crucial shot in the eighth. Down 6-3 at that point with two men on base, that ball tied the game, giving Varitek a huge +0.336 WPA for that play, and making him far and away the WPA leader for the night. Other notable WPA figures: Matt Clement earned every bit of his big -0.227 WPA with a very weak start. Surprisingly, Riske exceeded that total, giving up a double to Molina in the bottom of the eighth, followed by the go-ahead single to Hillenbrand. Some may wonder why Coco is negative for the night, despite going 2-for-4 with a HR. WPA measures the effect you have on the game, and Crisp's HR came in the fifth with the Sox trailing 6-0. Although it would later turn out to be important, at that point in the game, changing the score from 6-0 to 6-1 didn't really have a huge impact on the Sox' chances of winning. Yes, he gets positive WPA for the play, but not much (+0.025). Much more important was his AB in the eighth, with the game tied, two outs, and Loretta on second. This is a high-leverage situation, because a base hit here has a huge impact on your chances of winning the game. Instead, he flies out to center to end the inning, with -0.078 WPA for the play.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 5/29/06
Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 5/29/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 5/29/06


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