Sox Watch

Thursday, April 20, 2006

Red Sox WPA Tracking

This year's hot statistic is WPA, or Win Probability Added. This statistic, as described at The Hardball Times by Dave Studeman, uses statistical analysis to determine the probability of each team winning at each point in the game, and gives players credit for the extent to which their actions raise or lower their team's chances of winning the game.

2006 looks like the breakout year for WPA, with hordes of people tracking WPA for individual teams. I began tracking Red Sox WPA statistics at the beginning of the season, with a goal of producing WPA graphs for each game. This effort was made obsolete this week, however, by the great work of the folks at Fangraphs, who are now producing automated WPA graphs for each game.

I'm now focusing instead on tracking aggregate WPA statistics for Red Sox players. Sox Watch will provide updated player total WPA statistics, along with summary-level stats, such as Offense vs. Defense and Starting vs. Relief Pitching.


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