Sox Watch - Boston Red Sox WPA Statistics

Red Sox 2007 Regular Season WPA by Category

2007-10-29T17:33:00.000-04:00

After a yearlong hiatus, Sox Watch is back with some fresh new WPA statistics to celebrate the Red Sox' 2007 World Series Championship.

I haven't been publishing Red Sox WPA data on Sox Watch in 2007, since the days of manual WPA data collection are now long past - the fantastic Fan Graphs site now does a fantastic job of automatically collecting and publishing WPA data. However, the Fan Graphs data does not include one of the key aspects that I highlighted here on Sox Watch - the aggregate contributions by the offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching over the course of the season. So I've taken some of the raw WPA data from Fan Graphs and done some further processing to produce the aggregate totals that I had originally been publishing in 2006.

Here are the 2007 regular-season aggregate totals for offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching over the course of the season. The graph shows the WPA contribution from each category on a day-by-day basis.

The graph shows the dominant role the bullpen had in the Red Sox' success this year. The WPA for the relief pitchers was over 8.0 by the end of the year. The total WPA for the starting pitchers was just under 5.0, and the offense totaled just under 2.0.

It's interesting to observe the different patterns for the three categories. The bullpen maintained its strong performance almost throughout the whole season, slowing down slightly through the last two months. The starting pitching had some ups and downs, but generally also made steady progress throughout the season. The offense, on the other hand, had a three-phase season: red-hot for the first two months, ice cold through June and July, and hot again through the end of the year. Note that the total offensive WPA contribution was negative as late as August 6.

Red Sox Monthly WPA Leaders for August

2006-09-03T13:52:00.000-04:00

Last month I wrote that the monthly WPA rankings were getting a little bit boring, with Ortiz and Papelbon at the top of the list every month. In August, despite the team's catastrophic slide in the standings, Ortiz and Pabelbon continued to be the most consistent performers on the team, but they were both edged out for the top spot by Manny Ramirez.

Starters
It's hard to say which was worse in August, the stating rotation or the bullpen, but I'd have to give the nod for suckitude to the starters. At least the bullpen had Papelbon to provide some relief (so to speak), but the only decent pitcher in the rotation was David Wells, and by the end of the month he was packing his bags for San Diego. Kyle Snyder was the only other starter to post a positive WPA for the month.

Bullpen
Jonathan Papelbon continued to rule the roost in August, despite blowing three saves. The second-best performance came from Keith Foulke. With Rudy Seánez gone halfway through the month, Julián Tavárez could have had the bottom of the standings to himself, were it not for the inspired lousiness of Mike Timlin, who chose an extraordinarily bad time to call out his teammates for their poor offensive performance.

Position Players
David Ortiz had to share his spot at the top of the list this month with Manny Ramirez, who beat him out by 0.005 WPA to take the top spot on the team for the month. Other notable performers were Mark Loretta and Mike Lowell. At the bottom of the heap, leading the rest of the offense by a wide margin, was the disastrous acquisition Javy López. López managed to put together a -1.748 WPA for the month, despite starting just 15 games. In August, he hit .200 with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. His WPA total of -1.748 was almost twice as bad as the previous worst monthly total, the -0.923 turned in in April by Alex González.

Red Sox Monthly WPA Totals, August 2006

Red Sox WPA through 9/1/06

2006-09-02T18:33:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 9/1/06
Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 9/1/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 9/1/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/31/06

2006-09-02T18:03:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 8/31/06
Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/31/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/31/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/30/06

2006-09-02T17:47:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/30/06
Red Sox 2, Athletics 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/30/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/30/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/29/06

2006-09-02T17:33:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/29/06
Red Sox 1, Athletics 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/29/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/29/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/28/06

2006-09-02T17:25:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/28/06
Red Sox 0, Athletics 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/28/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/28/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/27/06

2006-09-02T17:11:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/27/06
Red Sox 3, Mariners 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/27/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/27/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/26/06

2006-09-02T16:56:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/26/06
Red Sox 3, Mariners 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/26/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/26/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/25/06

2006-09-02T16:47:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/25/06
Red Sox 0, Mariners 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/25/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/25/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/24/06

2006-09-02T16:28:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 8/24/06
Red Sox 2, Angels 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/24/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/24/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/23/06

2006-09-02T16:00:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/23/06
Red Sox 5, Angels 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/23/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/23/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/22/06

2006-08-23T09:21:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/22/06
Red Sox 3, Angels 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/22/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/22/06

Red Sox Series WPA vs. Yankees

2006-08-21T20:51:00.000-04:00

In the wake of this catastrophic series, here's a summary showing WPA totals for each player over the course of the five-game series.

On the pitching side, things are pretty much as you would suspect. Schilling and Wells turned in the only decent starts, while the bullpen sucked with the exception of Papelbon on Sunday and Tavarez in Game 2 on Friday. Papelbon managed to turn in a positive WPA despite his blown save, on the strength of his gutsy eighth-innning appearance. He entered the game with a two-run lead and the bases loaded with nobody out, which is about the toughest situation you can put a closer into. The Red Sox Win Probability when he entered the game was down to 56.2%. By the time he escaped the inning, giving up just the sacrifice fly, the WP had increased to 85.7%, giving him +0.295 for the inning. Of course, he gave some of this back in the ninth by giving up the game-tying bloop to Jeter, but he still finished with a positive total for the night.

It's also interesting to note that among the Yankees' starting pitchers, only Lidle in Game 5 turned in a positive WPA. The starters were negative in all four other games, yet the Sox were still unable to capitalize.

Offensively, Manny and Mark Loretta were the only bright spots. Manny went 8-for-11 with nine walks, while Loretta had nine hits over the weekend, four of them doubles. Crisp and Javy Lopez hurt the team the most at the plate, going a combined 3-for-31 over the weekend.

For New York, of course, just about everyone had a good series, with the exception of the starters. Rivera, Proctor, and Farnsworth led the way in the bullpen, with Vallone turning in the only poor performance. At the plate, Abreu, Giambi, and Jeter did the most damage, while the only significant negative performances were turned in by Craig Wilson and Sal Fasano.

Red Sox Series WPA Totals
vs. Yankees, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Yankees Series WPA Totals
vs. Red Sox, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Red Sox-Yankees Series WPA Summary

2006-08-21T20:27:00.000-04:00

Red Sox Series WPA Totals
vs. Yankees, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Yankees Series WPA Totals
vs. Red Sox, 8/18/06 - 8/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/21/06

2006-08-21T20:14:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/21/06
Yankees 2, Red Sox 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/21/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Monday, 8/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/20/06

2006-08-21T19:54:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/20/06
Yankees 8, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/20/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Sunday, 8/20/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/19/06

2006-08-20T17:13:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/19/06
Yankees 13, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/19/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Saturday, 8/19/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/18/06 (Game 2)

2006-08-20T16:11:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)
Yankees 14, Red Sox 11

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 2)

Red Sox WPA through 8/18/06 (Game 1)

2006-08-20T15:34:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)
Yankees 12, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Friday, 8/18/06 (Game 1)

Red Sox WPA through 8/16/06

2006-08-17T08:08:00.000-04:00

It was a relief last night to see the Red Sox bats deliver some timely hits, and to see the bullpen finally slam the door, helping deliver the first win over a team with a winning record since the 7-6 victory over the Angels on July 29th.

Wells finished with a negative WPA, but he pitched well enough to get the job done, delivering 6 and 2/3 respectable innings to even his record at 2-2. The big story at the plate was Coco Crisp, who went two-for-three with a walk and delivered the go-ahead runs in the bottom of the sixth with a two-run double. Crisp is now riding a seven-game hitting streak, hitting .345 over that stretch. Ortiz, meanwhile, broke out of his home run mini-drought with a two-run shot to break a 1-1 tie in the fifth. Ortiz reached base four times, going 1-1 with three walks (one semi-intentional, as he was given a free pass after Verlander got behind 3-1 in the third).

Jonathan Papelbon was as sharp as ever, with a 1-2-3 inning to earn his 32nd save on just six pitches, bringing sighs of relief across Red Sox Nation. Just as important, however, was Craig Hansen's performance, recording four outs while giving up just one hit. Hansen had been shaky, allowing nine runs (six earned) over his last seven starts, so it was nice to see a solid performance from him.

The bullpen is now nicely positioned going into Friday's doubleheader: the Tigers series saw one appearance each from Seanez, Breslow, Timlin, Hansen, and Papelbon. The Sox relax at home today while the Yankees wrap up their series with the Orioles with a day game today. A Baltimore win today would put the Sox just 1.5 games back. Let's hope it comes on a Kevin Millar homer in the eighteenth inning after a three-hour rain delay.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/16/06
Tigers 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/16/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/16/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/15/06

2006-08-16T15:12:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/15/06
Tigers 3, Red Sox 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/15/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/15/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/14/06

2006-08-16T13:56:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 8/14/06
Tigers 7, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/14/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 8/14/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/13/06

2006-08-14T17:59:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/13/06
Orioles 9, Red Sox 11

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/13/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/13/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/12/06

2006-08-13T14:44:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/12/06
Orioles 7, Red Sox 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/12/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/12/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/11/06

2006-08-13T14:26:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/11/06
Orioles 2, Red Sox 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/11/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/11/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/10/06

2006-08-13T14:12:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 8/10/06
Red Sox 4, Royals 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/10/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/10/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/9/06

2006-08-10T10:21:00.000-04:00

Not much to say about this game - easily the most painful loss of the year.

One point to note is the walk-off single by Sweeney. Manny made the play in shallow left field and appeared to have a play at the plate, but apparently couldn't get the ball out of his glove, and ended up not making a throw at all. The question here is how to apportion the WPA on this play between Papelbon and Ramirez. For routine plays, I debit/credit the pitcher with the full WPA total for the play, but for unusually good (or bad) plays, this gets shared with the fielder(s) in question. Here, Manny could arguably have saved the game with a decent throw to the plate, but that is speculative - Grudzielanek has decent speed, and was off on contact. I elected to give 25% of the WPA to Manny, for not even having a chance to make the play at home. Papelbon gets the remaining 75%, for giving up the hit in the first place.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/9/06
Red Sox 4, Royals 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/9/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/9/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/8/06

2006-08-09T10:46:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/8/06
Red Sox 4, Royals 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/8/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/8/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/6/06

2006-08-09T10:34:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 8/6/06
Red Sox 6, Devil Rays 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/6/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 8/6/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/5/06

2006-08-09T10:20:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 8/5/06
Red Sox 5, Devil Rays 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/5/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 8/5/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/4/06

2006-08-09T08:47:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 8/4/06
Red Sox 3, Devil Rays 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/4/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 8/4/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/3/06

2006-08-04T12:06:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 8/3/06
Indians 7, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/3/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 8/3/06

Red Sox WPA through 8/2/06

2006-08-04T11:38:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 8/2/06
Indians 5, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/2/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 8/2/06

Red Sox Monthly WPA Leaders for July

2006-08-02T10:11:00.000-04:00

The monthly WPA rankings are getting a little bit boring, with Ortiz's theatrics once again earning him top billing, and Papelbon continuing his march toward the Cy Young award. The action at the other end of the spectrum was a little more interesting, with some surprises at the bottom of the rankings.

Starters
Starting pitching was a bit of a puzzle this month, with Jon Lester the only real standout. He was lights-out in his first four starts of the month, and less stellar in his last two. Overall, in six starts, he put together a 2-1 record and 3.82 ERA to earn 0.438 WPA. In second place was Josh Beckett, who was 3-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 0.086 WPA in six starts. At the bottom of the heap were David Wells and Jason Johnson, who each struggled in their only start of the month.

Bullpen
Jonathan Papelbon of course ruled the roost in the pen, with five saves in six opportunities and a 0.71 ERA. He allowed just one run in his ten appearances, earning 1.256 WPA. In second place was Manny Delcarmen, who started off the month better than he finished it, but still ended up with a 3.52 ERA and 0.464 WPA. The worst performer out of the pen was Rudy Seánez. Seánez actually had a pretty good month, but his WPA took a bath in the 19-inning marathon against the White Sox on July 9, where he took the loss on a walk-off single by Tadahito Iguchi after pitching 2 1/3 scoreless innings. Since then, he has not allowed a run, but he has been used mainly in garbage-time situations, so his WPA has never rebounded from that bad outing. Second-worst in the pen was Javier López, who had a 6.23 ERA and -0.147 WPA for the month.

Position Players
Well, of course, David Ortiz, whose 2.312 WPA in July was the most for any player in any month this season. Hitting .339 with 14 homers will do that for you. Papi just needs to show up for the rest of the season to take home the MVP crown that should have been his last year. In second place offensively was Manny Ramirez, who put together a 16-game hitting streak to finish the month. For the whole month, he hit .336 with 9 homers. Bringing up the rear, we have Coco Crisp, who has excelled in the field and disappointed at the plate, with a .243 average for the month and -0.907 WPA. Second from the rear is Trot Nixon, who was riding a cold streak before getting hurt on July 30. He hit .187 for the month with just a single home run.

Red Sox Monthly WPA Totals, July 2006

Red Sox WPA through 8/1/06

2006-08-02T09:20:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 8/1/06
Indians 6, Red Sox 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/1/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 8/1/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/31/06

2006-08-01T19:22:00.000-04:00

With this game, David Ortiz takes over the American League WPA crown from Jonathan Papelbon, who had held it for the past few weeks. Yes, Ortiz and Papelbon lead not just the Red Sox, but the entire American League. The makes them the #1 and #2 candidates for MVP, since WPA is almost by definition a measurement of how "valuable" a player has been for his team. (You can see WPA figures for players on other teams at FanGraphs, by clicking the "Teams" section and then the "Season" tab. FanGraphs uses slightly different calculation logic than is used here on SoxWatch - they don't take errors into account, for example - but overall their figures are pretty close to those presented here). The current #3 player in the AL is Jermaine Dye, while the NL leaders are Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, and Brandon Webb.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 7/31/06
Indians 6, Red Sox 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/31/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/31/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/30/06

2006-07-31T16:23:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 7/30/06
Angels 10, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/30/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/30/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/29/06

2006-07-29T19:00:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 7/29/06
Angels 6, Red Sox 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/29/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/29/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/28/06

2006-07-29T18:34:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 7/28/06
Angels 8, Red Sox 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/28/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/28/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/26/06

2006-07-29T18:20:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 7/26/06
Red Sox 1, Athletics 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/26/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/26/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/25/06

2006-07-26T17:22:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 7/25/06
Red Sox 13, Athletics 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/25/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/25/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/24/06

2006-07-26T16:49:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 7/24/06
Red Sox 7, Athletics 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/24/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/24/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/23/06

2006-07-26T16:27:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 7/23/06
Red Sox 8, Mariners 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/23/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/23/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/22/06

2006-07-26T16:08:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 7/22/06
Red Sox 2, Mariners 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/22/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/22/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/21/06

2006-07-22T14:04:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 7/21/06
Red Sox 9, Mariners 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/21/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/20/06

2006-07-20T18:45:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 7/20/06
Royals 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/20/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/20/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/19/06

2006-07-19T17:22:00.000-04:00

Less than 24 hours after Jon Lester turned in the best starting pitching performance of the season, Josh Beckett exceeded it - at least as measured by WPA. Beckett earned a total of +0.607 WPA for this afternoon's game, scattering four hits in eight innings and combining with Papelbon for the second consecutive 1-0 shutout.

Why did Beckett earn more WPA than Lester did yesterday (Lester had +0.592 yesterday)? They both pitched eight shutout innings, and Beckett allowed four hits while Lester allowed just one. From a WPA perspective, though, the hits are not too important - as long as they don't turn into runs. For a pitcher who starts and finishes an inning in which no runs score, the WPA for the inning is determined solely by the difference between the Win Probability at the beginning and end of the inning. What happens in between does not matter - the pitcher loses WPA for allowing hits, but gains it back for the subsequent outs, which are worth more WPA with men on base.

So why aren't the totals for the two games the same? Lester had a bit more support from his defense, which took a little bit of his WPA away from him. I credit defensive players who make great plays with some of the WPA that would otherwise accrue to the pitcher. In Lester's game, I gave 25% of the WPA credit for the pickoff of Grudzielanek to Youkilis, who executed a tough throw to second, and I gave 25% of the credit for the out on Gathright's bunt attempt in the eighth to Lowell, who fielded it cleanly and fired a shot to first. Beckett got a bit of help too (Manny's catch of Phillips' liner in the fifth), but it was not worth as much as the help Lester got. Beckett therefore finishes with a slightly higher total, and takes his place as the best starting pitcher WPA performance of the year.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 7/19/06
Royals 0, Red Sox 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/19/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/19/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/18/06

2006-07-19T08:59:00.000-04:00

After going 88 straight games without recording a shutout, the Red Sox pitching staff has now put up two in the last four games. Jon Lester's brilliant start last night earned him the highest WPA for a starting pitcher so far this season, with a total of +0.592. Having a single-game WPA greater than 0.500 essentially means that the player was responsible for an entire win by himself, and then some. In last night's case, he won the game on his own (earning +0.500 WPA), and compensated for the lack of offense by the rest of the team by notching an additional +0.092 WPA. In contrast, Schilling's two-hit appearance in Saturday's shutout was only worth +0.268 - partially because he only pitched seven innings, but mostly because the Sox bats had already given him a five-run lead by the fourth inning, so there was less WPA on the line in the later innings.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 7/18/06
Royals 0, Red Sox 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/18/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/18/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/17/06

2006-07-18T10:25:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 7/17/06
Royals 4, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/17/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/17/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/16/06

2006-07-17T10:29:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 7/16/06
Athletics 8, Red Sox 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/16/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/16/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/15/06

2006-07-16T15:45:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 7/15/06
Athletics 0, Red Sox 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/15/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/15/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/14/06

2006-07-15T21:00:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 7/14/06
Athletics 3, Red Sox 15

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/14/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/14/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/13/06

2006-07-15T20:13:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 7/13/06
Athletics 4, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/13/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/13/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/9/06

2006-07-09T22:59:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 7/9/06
Red Sox 5, White Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/9/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/9/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/8/06

2006-07-09T22:19:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 7/8/06
Red Sox 9, White Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/8/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/8/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/7/06

2006-07-09T21:32:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 7/7/06
Red Sox 7, White Sox 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/7/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 7/7/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/6/06

2006-07-07T10:35:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 7/6/06
Red Sox 12, Devil Rays 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/6/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 7/6/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/5/06

2006-07-06T18:25:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 7/5/06
Red Sox 2, Devil Rays 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/5/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 7/5/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/4/06

2006-07-05T09:24:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 7/4/06
Red Sox 6, Devil Rays 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/4/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 7/4/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/3/06

2006-07-04T13:03:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 7/3/06
Red Sox 0, Devil Rays 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/3/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 7/3/06

Red Sox WPA through 7/2/06

2006-07-03T11:00:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 7/2/06
Red Sox 4, Marlins 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/2/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 7/2/06

Red Sox Monthly WPA Leaders for June

2006-07-02T16:52:00.001-04:00

The "WPA Player of the Month" awards for June held little drama. With two walk-off HR and another walk-off single over a 15-day span in June, Big Papi delivered the drama on the field, and easily walks off with the trophy. Second place too was a foregone conclusion, with Papelbon continuing to baffle hitters, despite having two blown saves in the month. The only real drama was for third place, and at the other end of the rankings, to see whether Tavárez or Seánez would emerge as the worst player of the month.

Starters
Wakefield and Schilling dueled for the top spot among the starting pitchers. Neither starter gave up more than three earned runs in any of their 11 starts. Schilling's 2.85 ERA beat out Wakefield's 3.38, but Wake held the edge in WPA by a slight margin to take the top honors among the starters. Clement and Johnson both pitched ineffectively in limited time in the month of June, with Johnson's sole start on the last day of the month putting him at the bottom of the rankings.

Bullpen
Papelbon of course led the pack among the relievers. Even his two blown saves didn't hurt him significantly, as he came back to pitch strongly to finish those games (the Red Sox won both games). In distant second place was Javier López, who gave up just one hit and one earned run in his seven appearances in June. And then, of course, we have Tavárez and Seánez. Each of them had one horrible game - Seánez giving up the three-run, go-ahead homer to Jeff Francouer on June 18, and Tavárez coughing up the walk-off grand slam to Jason Kubel to spoil Schilling's gem on June 13. Tavárez was net postiive for the month apart from that game, but that game was so bad (-0.782 WPA) that it earns him the bottom spot for the month, both among relievers and for the team as a whole.

Position Players
The real race among position players was for the #2 spot behind Ortiz. Youkilis, hitting .309 with 4 HR, and Ramirez, also hitting .309 and with 7 HR, were neck and neck. But Youkilis pulled in tons of WPA for his big games on June 2 (2-run HR in the top of the ninth to take a one run lead) and June 26 (RBI single in the bottom of the 12th to tie the game, and then coming around to score the winning run), and he edges out Manny for the runner-up spot. At the other end of the spectrum, Loretta fell off the pace after his Player of the Month award in May, and Varitek, hitting .262 with 2 HR for the month, takes the bottom spot.

Red Sox WPA through 7/1/06

2006-07-02T14:56:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 7/1/06
Red Sox 11, Marlins 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/1/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 7/1/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/30/06

2006-07-02T14:30:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 6/30/06
Red Sox 2, Marlins 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/30/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/30/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/29/06

2006-07-01T21:05:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 6/29/06
Mets 2, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 6/29/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 6/29/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/28/06

2006-07-01T20:36:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 6/28/06
Mets 2, Red Sox 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 6/28/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 6/28/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/27/06

2006-07-01T20:33:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 6/27/06
Mets 4, Red Sox 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/27/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/27/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/26/06

2006-06-26T18:49:00.000-04:00

Another wild win today. Just when you think that Ortiz couldn't possibly come through again, he proves you wrong. He needed to come up big today, because the team was not hitting on all cylinders. No runs for Wakefield through six innings. Wakefield, Seanez, and Lopez combining to blow most of a six-run lead in the seventh. Papelbon giving up his first HR, and his first real blown save, of the year. Gonzalez wasting a man-on-second, one-out chance in the tenth. Kapler and Lowell ruining a bases-loaded, one-out chance in the eleventh. This just did not look like a game that we were going to win. Until, of course, Big Papi came to the plate in the bottom of the twelfth, and, for the second game in a row, sent a Phillies pitcher walking slowly toward the dugout.

There were buckets of WPA to go around today, both positive and negative. Youkilis and Ortiz obviously take home the lion's share for tying and winning the game, but Crisp's double to lead off the twelfth was also huge, worth +0.239. And Wakefield's strong performance can't be overlooked, either. He piled up +0.389 WPA through six scoreless innings before giving back -0.058 in the seventh by loading the bases with no outs. He takes part of the heat for that debacle of an inning, but most of the blame belongs to Seanez (where have you heard that before?), who allowed four runs to score in facing just two batters.

The most interesting WPA story today was Papelbon. Normally, a blown save is a WPA killer for a closer. You take a situation where your team's chances of winning are in the 90% range, and you either reduce them to close to 0% by giving up the lead, or reduce them to around 50% by allowing the opposing team to tie. That's why closers typically pile up many small chunks of WPA, one for each save, and then give it back in big chunks whenever they blow a save. However, Papelbon today had a decent outing, despite the solo HR to Utley. First of all, he came in to get the third out in the eighth in a tough situation, an out that was worth +0.081. As the top of the ninth began, before the HR, the Sox chance of winning (Win Probability, or WP) was 82%. After the HR, it dropped to 50%, which is -32%, or -0.320, just for that one batter. However, he managed to get through the rest of the inning unscathed, which is worth a lot in a tie game, picking up +0.155 over the remainder of the inning. So his net for the day was -0.084, which is typically what you see for a run-of-the-mill bad relief appearance - not the type of calamitous WPA hit you normally see in a blown save. As a result, he still leads the rest of the team by a large margin, although if Ortiz continues hitting walk-offs, that lead won't stand up for long...

That's nine in a row for the Sox now, and three straight series sweeps. Let's hope this momentum continues against the Mets.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 6/26/06
Phillies 7, Red Sox 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/26/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/26/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/24/06

2006-06-25T15:04:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 6/24/06
Phillies 3, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/24/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/24/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/23/06

2006-06-25T14:37:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 6/23/06
Phillies 2, Red Sox 10

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/23/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/23/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/21/06

2006-06-22T08:56:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 6/21/06
Nationals 3, Red Sox 9

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 6/21/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 6/21/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/20/06

2006-06-21T09:21:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 6/20/06
Nationals 3, Red Sox 11

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/20/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/20/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/19/06

2006-06-20T10:49:00.000-04:00

I didn't see this entire game, so I don't have too much analysis today.

However, there is one interesting WPA note on the play where Loretta was thrown out at the plate in the fourth inning. At this point, we had Loretta on second with Ortiz up and two outs. Ortiz singles to center and Loretta tries to score, but is gunned down by a nice throw from Byrd, the center fielder (MLB.com has video of the play). Normally I score this as follows:

A single for Ortiz moving the runner to third, which is +0.014 WPA for Ortiz in this situation (charged against the pitcher).
An out for Loretta advancing to score, which is worth -0.047 WPA in this situation. This gets charged to Loretta as the baserunner (with Byrd getting credit on the other side).

However, on this play you also had Manny in the on-deck circle, being, well, Manny. Rather than signalling Loretta to slide, he's instead standing behind the umpire, doing nothing. Manny's lack of involvement in the play looked like it cost Loretta a decent chance of sliding safely. So for this play, I decided to split the -0.047 evenly between Loretta and Manny. I usually don't give WPA credits/debits to players not directly involved in the play, but this was an unusual situation, one where it seemed appropriate to assign some of the debit to Manny even though he wasn't directly involved. This is part of why Manny comes out negative for the night, despite his 2-for-5 night and his HR in the eighth.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 6/19/06
Nationals 3, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/19/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/19/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/18/06

2006-06-19T08:53:00.000-04:00

I don't know which was more painful - watching Rudy Seanez get credit for the win, or listening to Jon Miller's inanities for almost four hours. Let's hope that Seanez gets designated for assignment soon, and ESPN never carries another Red Sox game.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 6/18/06
Red Sox 10, Braves 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/18/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/18/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/17/06

2006-06-19T08:52:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 6/17/06
Red Sox 5, Braves 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/17/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/17/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/16/06

2006-06-17T17:59:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 6/16/06
Red Sox 4, Braves 1

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/16/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/16/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/15/06

2006-06-16T09:01:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 6/15/06
Red Sox 3, Twins 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 6/15/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 6/15/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/14/06

2006-06-15T09:46:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox offense has now scored three runs in the last 21 innings. Sigh.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 6/14/06
Red Sox 1, Twins 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 6/14/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 6/14/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/13/06

2006-06-14T08:51:00.000-04:00

Well, in my book that easily qualified as the toughest loss of the year (so far, anyway - let's hope it doesn't get any worse than last night). To throw away eight innings of brilliant work by Schilling, plus three more from Papelbon and Timlin, with that wretched performance in the twelfth was like a punch in the gut.

Switching over to the more clinical WPA perspective to avoid having to relive just what a painful game it was, there were a couple notable statistical lowlights on the night. First of all, Julian Tavarez managed, in a single inning, to eclipse 23 games of suckitude from Rudy Seanez to move to the bottom of the barrel in the WPA charts. He's not just our worst relief pitcher. He's not just our worst pitcher. He's the worst player on the team, period. He's worse than Seanez and Alvarez and Holtz - put together. Throw in Josh Bard and the combined foursome still has not hurt the team as much as Tavarez.

On a more positive note, Gonzo's 3-for-5 performance last night continued his strong performance over the last week or so. Once mired himself in last place in the WPA standings, he has surged ahead to overtake first Matt Clement, and then last night Tavarez and Coco Crisp.

The game itself was of course a gem, at least through the eleventh inning. WPA gives us some perspective on the overall "excitement level" of a game. Last night neither team led by more than a run until the final swing of the bat - in fact, all but nine batters came to the plate with the score tied. This means that there was a lot of WPA on the line with every play. Summing up the total WPA, both positive and negative, gives us a way to measure the excitement level of the game - how much of your fingernails you chewed off over the course of the game. Of course, every game has a net WPA of either +0.500 or -0.500, but the net figures mask the big positives and negatives. Adding up the absolute values for all the players gives us a better sense of how the game felt. By this standard, last night's game, with a total WPA of 3.24, was by far the tensest of the year. Only five other games this year have exceeded the value of 2.00, and none has come close to 3.00.

The top five games in excitement level so far this year, apart from last night:

4/29/06, total WPA 2.09 - Keith Foulke gets the win as the Sox come back from a 6-5 deficit with four runs in the ninth to beat the Devil Rays, 9-6.
4/26/06, total WPA 2.20 - Manny's three-run homer in the eighth at Cleveland breaks a 5-5 tie. The Indians come back to score one in the bottom of the inning, but the Sox hold on to win, 8-6.
4/21/06, total WPA 2.70 - The first extra-inning game of the season - Overbay doubles in a run in the bottom of the twelfth to give the Blue Jays a 7-6 victory.
5/3/06, total WPA 2.78 - Another 7-6 loss to the Blue Jays, as Papelbon gives up his first (and still his only) run of the season in the top of the ninth.
4/17/06, total WPA 2.81 - Patriots' Day. The Sox score one in the bottom of the eighth to take a one-run lead, the Mariners get the run back in the top of the ninth, and Loretta's walk-off HR in the bottom of the inning caps the 7-6 victory.

In contrast, the biggest yawner so far this year was on May 4, when the Sox took a five-run lead over Toronto in the first inning and went on to win 7-4. The total WPA in that game was just 0.571.

Here's a chart of the total absolute value of individual player WPA for each game so far this season.

Total Absolute Value WPA, Per Game
Through Tuesday, 6/13/06

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 6/13/06
Red Sox 5, Twins 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/13/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/13/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/11/06 (second game)

2006-06-12T08:40:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 6/11/06 (second game)
Rangers 13, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/11/06 (second game)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/11/06 (second game)

Red Sox WPA through 6/11/06 (first game)

2006-06-11T19:12:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 6/11/06 (first game)
Rangers 4, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/11/06 (first game)

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/11/06 (first game)

Red Sox WPA through 6/10/06

2006-06-11T18:30:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 6/10/06
Rangers 7, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/10/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/10/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/9/06

2006-06-10T15:44:00.000-04:00

I'm a bit relieved that Papelbon finally has his first blown save behind him. As blown saves go, this was about the best you could have hoped for. Thrown into a tough situation in the eight, with a man on third and two outs in a one-run game, Papelbon quickly yielded a base hit to Hank Blalock, ending his streak of consecutive saves at 20. That was not the end of the story, however, as the Sox came back with a run in the top of the ninth, and Papelbon returned to strike out three in the bottom of the inning to essentially secure a ninth-inning save for his own win. Papelbon lost -0.123 WPA in the eighth, but earned +0.203 in the ninth to come away with a net positive +0.080 for the night.

Tim Wakefield turned in his second-best outing of the year, WPA-wise, but the biggest contributor was Trot Nixon, who went 4-for-4 with a three run HR to come away with +0.436 WPA for the night.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 6/9/06
Rangers 3, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/9/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/9/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/8/06

2006-06-09T09:24:00.000-04:00

If you just look at the WPA, Curt Schilling comes out of this game looking like he (slightly) hurt the team, with a -0.012 total for the night. The three long balls he yielded were of course responsible for the negative total. The WPA doesn't tell the whole story, though. As far as I'm concerned, Schilling can give up three home runs every night he pitches if he wants to, as long as he continues to keep runners off the bases otherwise. Take your starter into the eighth allowing three runs, and turn the ball over to Papelbon in the ninth to shut things down, and you're going to win a lot of games.

This is now Schilling's fifth consecutive start without walking a batter. That's 34.2 innings of ball, during which time he has struck out 27. A 27-0 K/BB ratio is not too shabby. By contrast, Matt Clement has issued 19 walks over his last 34.2 innings. Schilling's ability to keep runners off the bases last night was almost uncanny - he threw a grand total of three pitches with a man on base (Damon, with his double in the third, had the only non-HR hit of the night, and Crisp promptly doubled him off on a line drive from Melky Cabrera).

For a while last night, it looked like Papelbon might have a chance to pick up his 21st save of the year, but Varitek put an end to that with his three-run shot in the seventh. Instead, the one who ended up with a chance for a save turned out to be Red Sox whipping boy Scott Proctor, who took the mound in the sixth with a 3-2 lead, nobody out, and the bases full of Red Sox. Talk about a tough save! Proctor of course immediately yielded the sacrifice fly to Youkilis to bring in the tying run, and went on to give up the shot to Varitek in the seventh. Proctor now has four blown saves in his last twelve appearances, not usually what you're looking for in a middle reliever. His ERA against the Red Sox is now 13.50, which is why he's dead-last in the Yankees WPA ranking (in games against Boston). However, he's not at the bottom of the Yankees overall team WPA for the whole season. That honor, according to Fangraphs, belongs to none other than Randy Johnson. Hehe.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 6/8/06
Red Sox 9, Yankees 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 6/8/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 6/8/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 6/8/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Thursday, 6/8/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/6/06

2006-06-07T10:42:00.000-04:00

I haven't yet figured out a decent way to measure manager's WPA, but last night was one of those games that makes you wonder. Why, oh why, was David Pauley still on the mound in the seventh inning, 91 pitches deep in the second outing of his major-league career, after having just been shaken up diving for a Miguel Cairo dribbler? Rudy Seanez had been up since the beginning of the inning and was certainly ready at that point. What's the reasoning here? "We'll leave him in to try to get him the win"? That worked about as well as it worked last week in Toronto. "No worries, he'll shake it off"? Sure, with his years of big league experience, he'll have no problem getting his concentration back.

But OK, there he is, facing Johnny Damon, who quickly jumps on a fastball and pokes it into left field. Surely that's enough to bring Terry to the mound, right? Nope. It takes a four-pitch walk to Melky Cabrera to load the bases before Francona finally goes out to put the kid out of his misery.

It would be nice to see Keith Foulke in this situation, but he's been abducted by aliens or something, and so we're left with Rudy Seanez. If I hear one more time how Seanez hasn't allowed an earned run in his last eleven starts, I'm going to spit. His highlights over those eleven games (including last night) include the following:

Allowing eleven hits, six walks, and one hit batsman, for a total of 18 men on base, over the span of 13.1 innings
Two wild pitches
Allowing runs to score in both games where he has inherited runners
Walking three to load the bases in the ninth inning against Tampa Bay. All three would come around to score, but they count as unearned runs because of the passed ball thrown by Tavarez
Putting men in scoring position in seven games, including five of the last six
Putting men on base in nine games, including all of the last nine

Papelbon he ain't. So he comes in last night in an admittedly tough situation, tie game, bases loaded, and promptly proceeds to walk Giambi to bring in the go-ahead run. Outstanding.

Anyway, enough venting. I mentioned manager's WPA earlier only half-jokingly. In trying to evaluate pitching changes (or lack thereof), it is almost impossible to measure, and I don't have any intention to try to do this. We're stuck with just assigning the WPA credits/debits to the pitchers in question. Manager's WPA is more of an issue for tactical moves like sacrifice bunts. We've already seen several games this year where a sacrifice is executed in a situation where the play, even though successful, actually decreases the team's Win Probability. In other words, the WP is higher with a man on first and no outs than it is with a man on second and one out. It seems a little unfair in this situation to assign the WPA debit to the player who executes the sacrifice, since he is just following orders. On the other hand, the sacrifice play is not just a call by the manager - it needs to be successfully executed, too, and this depends entirely on the player. A player who makes an out on a failed sacrifice (see Gonzalez, Alex) certainly deserves the much larger WPA debit for hurting the team's chance of winning. So it's not clear how to divide WPA responsibility between the manager's decision to sacrifice and the player's execution of that decision. In most cases so far, the WPA losses on sacrifices have been very small, so I'm not worrying too much about it at this point, and continuing to assign the WPA to the batter. If you've got ideas on how to improve this, let me know.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 6/6/06
Red Sox 1, Yankees 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/6/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 6/6/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 6/6/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Tuesday, 6/6/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/5/06

2006-06-06T09:41:00.000-04:00

Well, Mirabelli finally homered. That's about all I really want to say about this game.

Actually, I'll say a bit more, because there are a bunch of interesting WPA lessons here. Focusing on the stats helps distract me from what a painful game this was.

First of all, you might wonder, in such an abjectly miserable game, how Lowell, Youkilis, Crisp, Nixon, and Gonzalez managed to turn in fairly hefty positive WPA totals. The answer is simply that Beckett was so bad that he absorbed most of the negative WPA himself. By time the second inning was (finally) over, the game was essentially lost, and Beckett left the game with a -0.540 WPA total. It's pretty tough to accumulate more than 0.500 in negative WPA for a game singlehandedly. In fact, this is the first time it has happened all year. Going over 0.500 means that you essentially lost the entire game, and more, yourself.

Each team enters the game with a 0.500 (50%) WP (Win Probability), and by the end of the game, the Sox' WP was 0.000. So they lost 0.500 along the way. So how is it possible for Beckett to lose more than 0.500, with a total of -0.540 for the game? The answer is that the WP goes up and down over the course of the game, which means that in some cases, the pitcher is giving back WP that the offense has previously earned. That is what happened here. At the end of the top of the first inning, the Sox' WP was 0.452. In the bottom of the inning, the Yankees scored a run, and by the end of the first, the Sox' WP was down to 0.397. Varitek took some of the debit for his unusual defensive manuevers during the Cabrera run, and Beckett absorbed a total of -0.038 WPA for the inning. Then, in the top of the second, the Sox got two runs back, making the score 2-1 by the end of the top of the second. At this point, they have a WP of 0.557. Then, over the course of the bottom of the second, Beckett proceeds to squander most of that total. By the time he leaves the game, the WP is down to 0.055, and he has lost 0.502 in the inning. This, combined with the 0.038 he lost in the first, produces his total of -0.540 for the night.

One odd side effect of Beckett's huge WPA number is that it means that the rest of the team actually had a net positive WPA of 0.040 for the night. This is where the numbers for Lowell, Youk, Crisp, and Nixon come from. Crisp doubled in the first for +0.058 WPA, while the three straight hits for Nixon, Youk, and Lowell in the second were worth a total of +0.224. Gonzo's positive number came from his defense. I gave him 75% of the credit for hauling in Beckett's errant throw to second to force Damon on the FC play where Cabrera reached.

Another anomaly here is Mussina, who pitched a pretty strong game, striking out eight and allowing four ER. He probably would have gone more than six innings in a tighter game. Yet he finishes the night with a -0.072 WPA, the worst on the Yankees. At first glance, this seems strange. But you have to remember what WPA is telling you. It's not telling you how good the player is, or even how well he played. It's telling you how much he contributed to the victory (or loss), and so it depends tremendously on the game situations each player is performing in. In Mussina's case, his WPA simply reflects the fact that the NY offense won the game last night. Mussina gets a minor positive WPA for getting through the first inning unscathed, and then a larger negative WPA for giving up the lead in the second, making him net negative at that point. After that, the Yankees bats take over, and by the time Mussina walks onto the mound in the third, the game is over - it doesn't really matter how well, or how badly, he pitches from this point forward. His WPA total from the third inning onward is only 0.040. This is also why the totals for Riske, Tavarez, Delcarmen, Proctor, Villone, and Rivera are all very close to zero. Combined, those six pitchers threw 8.1 innings of shutout ball (Riske allowed a couple inherited runners to score), but their WPA total is a combined 0.009, because none of them were pitching in situations where their performance had a big impact on the outcome of the game.

Finally, I'd like to do a WPA analysis of the bizarre play that brought Melky Cabrera around to score in the bottom of the first. I break baserunning plays up into smaller segments to properly record WPA debit/credit to the players involved. See, for example, the play on May 28 where Manny threw Joey Gathright out at the plate. Last night, we had Cabrera on first in the bottom of the first with one out in a scoreless game. The Sox WP at that point was 0.450. As Cabrera advanced around the bases, the WP diminished at each point:


With a man on first,  WP = 0.450
With a man on second, WP = 0.434 (a loss of 0.016)
With a man on third,  WP = 0.407 (a loss of 0.027)
With the run in,      WP = 0.374 (a loss of 0.033)
Total net loss           = -0.076

So we have a total of -0.076 of WPA to divide up among the players involved. I broke it down like this:

Advancing from first to second - This was due to the wild pitch. I blame Beckett for 75% of this and Varitek for 25%, splitting the -0.016 accordingly, so Beckett gets -0.012 and Varitek gets -0.004.
Advancing from second to third - This was due entirely to Varitek's throw to second. I assigned all of the -0.027 WPA for this portion to Varitek. I could have chosen to assign some of this to Lowell for missing the throw to second, but I felt that this was an uncatchable throw.
Advancing from third to home to score - This was tougher to account for. As Remy said during the game, nobody practices for this type of situation, so it's not clear what the assigned roles are. But the fact is that everyone was out of position and nobody was guarding the plate. I figure that either Beckett or Varitek should have been there, so I divide the -0.033 for this play evenly between them, which is about -0.0165 for each.

So at the end of the play, we have Beckett with -0.028 and Varitek to -0.048. This gives Beckett about 37% of the debit for the play, and Varitek about 63%. This fits pretty well with my intuition about the play. Beckett kicked things off with a bad (but not horrible pitch), and finished up with a bad throw back to the plate, while Varitek takes a larger share for missing the WP, the crazy throw to second, and getting out of position at the end of the play.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 6/5/06
Red Sox 5, Yankees 13

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/5/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 6/5/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 6/5/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Monday, 6/5/06

Red Sox Monthly WPA Leaders for May

2006-06-04T20:39:00.000-04:00

Here are the cumulative Red Sox WPA leaders and laggards for the month of May. Note that this is not through May - it is just for the single month, a sort of "Player of the Month" award.

To me, Papelbon stood out as the most notable player of the month, but the stats don't really bear that out. April was actually a better month for him, with ten saves in the month. In May he had nine saves, but he also had his one and only rocky appearance, giving up three hits and a run in an inning of work against the Blue Jays on May 3. Take out this night, and he'd be challenging for the lead.

Papelbon was beat out by Timlin, Manny, and Loretta. Timlin quietly put together an outstanding month, giving up just a single run in ten appearances, often in tough situations. Manny hit .333 for the month, with nine HR. Most importantly, he was a Yankee killer, batting .500 (13 for 26) against the Yankees, with 5 home runs. Top honors go to Loretta, who hit .404 for the month. He too stepped up his game against the Yankees, with a hit in every game to go .469 against New York, also adding three walks and just a single strikeout. The high point of his month came on May 11, going 4-for-6 with 3 RBI, including the game-winning runs in the seventh. That game earned him +0.538 WPA, and cemented his claim as Player of the Month.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have Pauley, Schilling, Gonzalez, Mirabelli, and Clement. Pauley appears because of his one start, in which he actually pitched pretty well until giving up four runs in the fifth. Schilling had two bad outings in a row early in the month, and his one good start didn't generate enough positive WPA to offset the bad starts. Gonzo - well, you knew this already. I'm sorry to see Mirabelli on the list - I wanted him to return to Boston with the kind of power he showed in 2004 and 2005. Instead, he hit an anemic .154 for the month, and is still looking for his first homer. At the bottom of the list is Matt Clement, whose 2-2 record for the month disguises a lofty 8.11 ERA.

Red Sox Monthly WPA Leaders / Laggards - May 2006

Red Sox WPA through 6/4/06

2006-06-04T19:34:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 6/4/06
Red Sox 8, Tigers 3

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/4/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 6/4/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/3/06

2006-06-04T17:58:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 6/3/06
Red Sox 2, Tigers 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/3/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 6/3/06

Red Sox WPA through 6/2/06

2006-06-03T16:10:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 6/2/06
Red Sox 3, Tigers 2

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/2/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 6/2/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/31/06

2006-06-03T15:44:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 5/31/06
Red Sox 8, Blue Jays 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 5/31/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 5/31/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/30/06

2006-06-03T14:43:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 5/30/06
Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 5/30/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 5/30/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/29/06

2006-05-30T09:32:00.000-04:00

A wild ride last night, but the Sox didn't have enough gas to get to the finish line. It was a shame to waste a six-run comeback from being down 6-0, and particularly painful to watch Gonzalez, Youk, and Loretta go down meekly in the ninth with the game on the line.

Bright spots were Coco's first Red Sox homer, and Varitek's crucial shot in the eighth. Down 6-3 at that point with two men on base, that ball tied the game, giving Varitek a huge +0.336 WPA for that play, and making him far and away the WPA leader for the night. Other notable WPA figures: Matt Clement earned every bit of his big -0.227 WPA with a very weak start. Surprisingly, Riske exceeded that total, giving up a double to Molina in the bottom of the eighth, followed by the go-ahead single to Hillenbrand. Some may wonder why Coco is negative for the night, despite going 2-for-4 with a HR. WPA measures the effect you have on the game, and Crisp's HR came in the fifth with the Sox trailing 6-0. Although it would later turn out to be important, at that point in the game, changing the score from 6-0 to 6-1 didn't really have a huge impact on the Sox' chances of winning. Yes, he gets positive WPA for the play, but not much (+0.025). Much more important was his AB in the eighth, with the game tied, two outs, and Loretta on second. This is a high-leverage situation, because a base hit here has a huge impact on your chances of winning the game. Instead, he flies out to center to end the inning, with -0.078 WPA for the play.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Monday, 5/29/06
Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 7

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 5/29/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Monday, 5/29/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/28/06

2006-05-28T17:27:00.000-04:00

Well, that was a truly bizarre ninth inning. One minute you're one strike away from a 5-0 shutout, the next minute you're throwing out the tying run at the plate to eke out a 5-4 victory.

This inning deserves a few explanatory notes from a WPA perspective. Despite a truly lousy outing (walking three to load the bases), Seanez escapes with a pretty minimal WPA loss (-0.003), because he did get two outs along the way. Even at that point, with the bases loaded and two outs, the Sox WP is still 98.9%. Tavarez takes most of the WPA hit (and deserves to), by walking two more batters in much more critical situations than the ones Seanez faced. He then gave up what would have been a back-breaking base hit to Crawford, had it not been for Gathright's incomprehensible decision to try to squeeze in the tying run.

The Sox WP was actually briefly 100% after the Norton strikeout, but then the passed ball gave the Rays new life. I split the debit for that passed ball, as I do for all passed balls, 25% to the pitcher, and 75% for the catcher. This cost Tavarez -0.008 WPA and Mirabelli -0.025 WPA.

The final play was a tricky one, and an important one for WPA, because there was a lot on the line at that point, obviously. The Sox WP before the play was 85.4%. Crawford got a base hit to right, scoring Norton, and then Harris threw out Gathright trying to score. On plays like this, I split the action into two separate plays. First, Crawford's hit scores Norton. If the play had stopped there, we would have had a 5-4 score, with the bases loaded, with a Sox WP of 76.2%. Tavarez therefore takes a -0.092 WPA debit for his role in the play. From here on, however, Tavarez is not involved in the play, and so all the remaining WPA credit/debit is split among the fielders involved. We start with a WP of 76.2% and the ball in center field, and we finish with Gathright out at the plate, the game over, and a WP of 100%. There is therefore 0.238 of WPA to be distributed. I elected this to split this into three equal parts: One share went to the "Errors" category, which represents errors (and also good plays) by the opposing team. In this case, I consider Gathright's decision to try for home to be a judgement error. It's not clear at this point whether Gathright was waved home or made the call on his own, but in any case, it was a poor decision that helped the Sox. The remaining two-thirds of the credit for this play I split evenly between Harris, who threw a perfectly-located strike to the plate, and Mirabelli, who hauled it in, got set, and made the tag on Gathright.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Sunday, 5/28/06
Devil Rays 4, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 5/28/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Sunday, 5/28/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/27/06

2006-05-28T14:50:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Saturday, 5/27/06
Devil Rays 4, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 5/27/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Saturday, 5/27/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/26/06

2006-05-27T13:32:00.000-04:00

I've never been a big fan of saves, which have always seemed to me to have too many arbitrary regulations to be a useful real-world stat. Reading Moneyball just served to reinforce this perception. However, it has taken just eight short weeks in this Spring of Papelbon to turn me into a full-fledged save-a-holic. You know you're in too deep when you start rooting for late-game Devil Rays rallies just to bring the game back within three runs. This game was a nail-biter in the save department:

After six, Sox lead 6-1. Tonight's not going to be the night for #17.

Tampa Bay gets 2 in the top of the seventh to make it 6-3. Maybe....

Nixon singles in Lowell in the bottom of the seventh to make it 7-3. Oh well.

Crawford opens the eight with a solo shot to make it 7-4. Hmmmm.

Ortiz gets his fourth RBI in the bottom of the eighth. 8-4. Game over.

But wait! Seanez (of course) puts two men on in the ninth. And the save regulations, carefully crafted by federal bureaucrats for maximum complexity, allow for a save in a situation where the tying run is on deck, even if you have a four-run lead with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Friday, 5/26/06
Devil Rays 4, Red Sox 8

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 5/26/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Friday, 5/26/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/25/06

2006-05-26T09:52:00.000-04:00

Another fine start from Beckett, another Papelbon save (#16, once again giving him sole ownership of first place in all of MLB), and a great game from Loretta, at the plate and in the field. And the highlight of the game: Ortiz's belly-flop into third tagging on a Nixon fly ball, which shook seismographs up and down the east coast. A hit for every starter ensured that nobody had substantial negative WPA for the night. Sure is nice to be playing the Devil Rays instead of the Yankees...

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Thursday, 5/25/06
Devil Rays 1, Red Sox 4

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 5/25/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Thursday, 5/25/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/24/06

2006-05-25T08:07:00.000-04:00

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 5/24/06
Yankees 8, Red Sox 6

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 5/24/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Wednesday, 5/24/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Wednesday, 5/24/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Wednesday, 5/24/06

Red Sox WPA through 5/23/06

2006-05-24T08:42:00.000-04:00

Not a good night. After Damon's leadoff HR you knew things weren't going to go well. Wakefield pitched well early until the bizarre seventh inning, which he began by getting Phillips and Damon on three pitches. Then he proceeded to throw ten straight balls, putting Jeter and Sheffield on base and getting behind A-Rod 2-0. Smelling blood, A-Rod took the next pitch, a 69 mph knuckleball thigh-high across the middle of the plate, and deposited it in the Monster Seats in center. Shades of Miguel Cairo as he trotted to first unaware of where the ball had gone, until Tony Peña gave him the good news. Bright spots included Manny continuing to show some power at home, Youkilis' diving grab in the second, Riske's return, going 1-2-3 in the eighth, and Papelbon shutting down Damon, Jeter, and Sheffield in what had become a tight situation in the ninth.

Individual Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 5/23/06
Yankees 7, Red Sox 5

Full-Season Player WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 5/23/06

Full-Season Category WPA Contributions
Through Tuesday, 5/23/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions
Tuesday, 5/23/06

Yankees Player WPA Contributions vs. Red Sox
Through Tuesday, 5/23/06